Mixed Signals

February 7, 2021

*Note: this post contains references to the liquidity gap system designed by @Trader_xB

Last week we discussed macro bearish signals and the possibilities of a bear market. While I do believe that 28.8k will be taken at some point and that we could see potentially 10k or 11k BTC/USD, intraday setups don’t depend on this knowledge. The past few days have seen a nice bounce, so let’s look at some logical levels for the week ahead.

Weekly filled in a liquidity gap (our previous target) and formed a GOAT LGR. Weekly target is the LG at 45.6k, and I like this level because it’s nicely confluent with the yearly open at 46.2k. During the May 2021 liquidation event and subsequent range, price formed the 28.8k low off of a yearly open retest. If we’re looking at areas to call tops, my money is on it being here.

The daily is starting the week with a bearish sweep over a weekly high, with the added context of occurring at a daily LGEQ. While I do think the yearly open gets tested, it’s likely that we’re starting to see the beginning of retracement to fill in the orders from the inefficient up move. Technically the daily is still bullish though, and I’d need to see an LGR form (i.e, a close through 42.7k) to be full on bearish on this time frame.

The 4h is what I care about most, and it is giving the textbook sign of a reverse in flows: a sweep + LGR, putting us on for shorts to the current target of 42.8k.

So to reiterate, I am monthly bearish, weekly bullish, daily bullish, and intraday bearish.

In the midst of chaos, there is also opportunity.